Beef producers in South America are focusing on exports, as demand rises around the world.
But production in the four largest South American beef-producing and exporting countries – Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, and Paraguay – is anticipated to contract in 2025, according to Rabobank.
According to a recent RaboResearch report, South American producers are prioritising exports, with volumes continuing to grow despite the projected drop. There is show international demand, particularly from China.
Beef prices
Angus Gidley-Baird, senior analyst in animal protein for RaboResearch, said: "We expect Brazil, which accounts for 63% of South America's supply, to reduce its production by 500,000 metric tons this year."
The higher level of female slaughter, driven by strong prices in 2022 and 2023 was the main driver.
Despite the production drop, declining consumer purchasing power and reduced domestic beef consumption have led processors to focus on export volume growth.
Exports have outpaced production increases, as China increased demand for South American protein since 2019. 76% of China's total beef imports came from South America in 2024.
While beef consumption has a larger share of South American diets than other regions, domestic economic pressures, increased availability of other proteins and the increased exports has seen consumption per capita decline.
Beef prices have also increased.
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"We believe this trend will continue in the coming years, making more beef available for the export market. Poultry is already the largest consumed protein in Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina.
"But other proteins such as pork and seafood have smaller shares of the diet than in other markets and therefore in our view have the capacity to increase," Mr Gidley-Baird said.
The cultural appeal of beef still remains strong.
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In North America, cattle prices are rising on the back of low inventory and strong demand. Brazilian cattle prices surged at the end of 2024 but were expected to drop in the second quarter of 2025. Global beef production is set to decline in 2025, with trade uncertainty also potentially affecting markets.
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